Essex, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

288
FXUS61 KBTV 102037
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
337 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will bring some light rain showers to the region this
evening, with some breezy southerly winds overnight and temperatures
trending warmer for tomorrow. A potent cold front will bring more
showers and a period of gusty northwest winds Monday night, with
some mountain snow showers. Cooler and drier weather will return
for the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 329 PM EST Sunday...After a fairly quiet morning, more
unsettled conditions return to the region this evening into the
start of the work week due to frontal boundaries associated with a
surface low centered over the Great Lakes. Cloud cover across the
region has continued to increase throughout the afternoon, with our
incoming precipitation currently over western New York. The rain
looks to reach the St. Lawrence Valley this evening, and spread
eastward overnight. Southerly winds this afternoon have been quite
breezy across in the Champlain Valley, and are expected to increase
heading into tomorrow, especially across Lake Champlain where a Lake
Wind Advisory has been issued, with more information in the Marine
section. Ongoing precipitation and southerly winds will make for
mild overnight temperatures tonight, with lows mainly in the 40s.

For Monday, a break in the showers will be possible as a dry slot
moves overhead, although a few additional showers can`t be ruled
out, especially across the higher terrain. Overall precipitation
amounts will generally be between 0.1 to 0.6 inches of rain between
the two features. In addition to possible showers, abundant cloud
cover and breezy southerly winds winds will make for a rather dreary
day. The warmest temperatures of the week are expected tomorrow
afternoon, with highs in the 50s to near 60F in a few locations,
which is about 10 degrees or so warmer that climatological normals
for this time of year. Shower activity will redevelop Monday night as
a cold front pushes through the region overnight, with a robust
broken line of showers moving through overnight. Strong cold air
advection will take place behind this feature, with temperatures
dropping after midnight. Showers will become more focused across the
western slopes of the Adirondacks and northern Greens as the winds
become more northwesterly, becoming breezy behind the front. Snow
levels will lower tomorrow night, with some snow mixing in, with
light snow accumulations possible across the higher terrain, above
1500ft elevation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 329 PM EST Sunday...We continue to monitor the potential for
snow or patchy slick spots at higher elevations for the Tuesday
morning commute. Probability of precipitations will be on the
decrease Tuesday morning, but any lingering wetness on roads and
bridges could become slick if temperature conditions are just right.
Additional morning mountain upslope snowfall accumulations will be
primarily across the Adirondacks, Greens, and Northeast Kingdom only
up to about a half an inch at most. By the afternoon, conditions
will dry and clear, revealing sunshine, as an upper trough moves
east and surface low pressure speeds off into the Canadian
maritimes.

Brisk northwesterly surface winds and cold air advection will
follow, with gusts 20-30 knots, limiting temperatures to reach only
the mid 30s to lower 40s at peak heating, 5-10 degrees below
seasonal normals. Tuesday night will, subsequently, be much colder
than Monday night as cold, dry air settles into the region under
high pressure. Clear skies will allow for optimal radiational
cooling as winds decrease, allowing for low temperatures as low as
the mid teens to upper 20s, once again several degrees below average.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 329 PM EST Sunday...High pressure will be in control for
Wednesday and even much of Thursday, resulting in dry weather and
highs in the lower to mid 40s, with another chilly Wednesday night,
lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. Thursday night, global models
depict a trough approaching to get blocked by the high pressure and
slide south. Friday-Friday night into Saturday, models show some
chance of precipitation sliding into the forecast area along a
shortwave from the northwest or on the back end of the low mentioned
in the near term discussion. Models are not exactly in agreement on
how or when precipitation will truly reach our area, so uncertainty
remains high. Temperatures for the end of the week/weekend are
forecast to be highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s and lows in the mid
20s to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions currently prevail across
the region this afternoon, with increasing clouds ahead of
precipitation across western New York that will bring showers to
the region between 00Z and 12Z. Occasional MVFR visibilities
can be expected with these showers, with ceilings trending
towards MVFR between 03Z and 09Z which will linger for most of
the forecast period with additional showers possible during the
afternoon. Winds generally south to southwesterly between 5 and
15 kts, with gusts of 25 kts seen at KBTV this morning. Winds
look to increase overnight, becoming gusty towards the end of
the forecast. A period of LLWS can be expected at all terminals,
generally between 03Z and 12Z, due to a southwesterly low-level
jet.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low RH conditions can be seen across the region again this
afternoon, with daytime minimum values in the 25-35 percent
range. RH values will continue to increase this evening, as
precipitation approaches the region. Southerly winds have
generally between 5 ans 10 knots, although increasingly breezy
in the Champlain Valley.

Smoke from ongoing wildfire activity in the nrn NJ/sern NY
region has drifted northward, most noticeable within the Hudson
Valley this afternoon. No visibility restrictions have been
noticed across our forecast area. The incoming rain will help
reduce the concentration of the smoke.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued, with strong southerly
winds winds expected this evening through the overnight.
Colchester Reef has been seeing sustained winds of 20 to 25 kts
with gusts of 30+ kts at times. A tightening pressure gradient
and southwesterly low level jet will continue to bring strong
southerly winds, likely 15 to 25 knots, highest across the
broad and northern portion of Lake Champlain. Wave heights in
the northern portion of the broad lake could reach 4-6ft for a
time early tomorrow morning.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Kremer
FIRE WEATHER...Team BTV
MARINE...Team BTV