Essex, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

212
FXUS61 KBTV 301847
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
247 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The freezing rain threat has come to an end with a period of wet
weather expected to continue through Monday afternoon. A brief
period of drier weather is expected for Tuesday and much of Wednesday
before another frontal system brings a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and
freezing rain back to the region Wednesday night and Thursday.
Unsettled weather looks to continue on Friday and this upcoming
weekend with chances for rain and/or snow showers each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 243 PM EDT Sunday...Precipitation continues to lift north this
afternoon with warm air ever so slightly beginning to displace the
below freezing air that has been entrenched across the region over
the past 36 hours. This is allowing for freezing rain to change to
plain rain before ultimately ending. We have been able to slowly
cancel the warnings and advisories across the region as a result but
it seems plenty of damage was seen with the ice across portions of
northern New York and Vermont. Based on the latest observations,
there are only a handful of places at or below freezing but are
expected to rise above freezing right at precipitation ends. Thus,
we have decided to go ahead and cancel all warnings and advisories
with the issuance of this forecast package.

Looking forward, we will continue to see disorganized rain showers
through the overnight period as we will see a series of shortwave
traverse the western periphery of the upper level ridge. Given
continued warm air advection, we will see temperatures slowly rise
throughout the overnight period. We will see temperatures
"skyrocket" tomorrow afternoon into the 60s with a few places
nearing 70 degrees across southern Vermont. Model soundings and HREF
members are hinting at 100-500 J/kg of CAPE developing within the
warm sector, mainly across Vermont. This may support some embedded
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Tuesday afternoon. Overall
rainfall amounts will range from a quarter to half of an inch but
could see very localized amounts up to an inch where thunderstorms
develop. For more on flooding potential, please see the hydro
section below.

We will also see some gusty winds on Monday ahead of the
aforementioned cold front with winds gusting between 15 and 30 mph
with gusts up to 40 mph across Lake Champlain. These winds are
expected to weaken slightly and shift to the northwest in the wake
of the cold front Monday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 243 PM EDT Sunday...Outside of some morning snow or rain
showers, Tuesday is shaping up to be dry with seasonally cool
temperatures in the 30s. Most snow showers will be limited to the
high terrain with snow accumulations well under an inch expected.
Although surface high pressure begins to nose into the region on
Tuesday, we should still see enough gradient flow to see northwest
winds of 10 to 20 mph throughout the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 243 PM EDT Sunday...While Wednesday looks to start off
relatively calm, high pressure will depart to the northeast as a
trough and associated precipitation approaches by Wednesday night.
Temperatures look to be in the low 40s for highs and mid to low 30s
for the overnight lows. Precipitation looks to begin as snow across
most of the region, with some rain mixing in across the St. Lawrence
and Champlain Valleys. A warm front will lift into the region from
the south Wednesday night which will draw in elevated warm air,
however, with the departing high to the northeast and northerly
cooler air at the surface, a deep warm nose aloft looks to form with
a cool surface. Confidence has grown in the wintry mix potential as
cold air looks to remain entrenched east of the greens and within
the Adirondacks Wednesday night. All winter precipitation types look
to be in possible. By Thursday morning, stronger waa will allow a
changeover to all rain, which looks to persist through Thursday
night as a cold front helps to clear out the region of moisture.
Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be several degrees above
average with highs in the 50s and 60s. Beyond Friday temperatures
look to will fall slightly below average as a broad ridge of high
pressure filters in.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Mainly ceiling-driven IFR/MVFR conditions
expected during the forecast period at all terminals. Patchy
light showers possible through early evening, then again after
12Z with approach of cold front. Highest probabilities of IFR at
KMSS, KSLK and KMPV, with some intermittent IFR possible at KRUT
from 00-12Z Monday. Also note enhanced southwesterly LLWS into
the 40-50 kt range develops at most terminals by later this
afternoon and into the overnight hours which may impact
approaches/departures with enhanced mechanical turbulence.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Scattered
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Definite SHRA, Definite SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...Recent model data continues to suggest
we will see between a quarter and half of an inch of rainfall on
Monday with the potential for some light rain showers tonight as
well. Given recent snowfall and temperatures in the 60s
tomorrow, the combination of snow melt and additional rainfall
is expected to cause sharp rises on area rivers. While
widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time, the latest
river forecasts bring the East Branch of the Ausable River at
Ausable Forks and the Mad River at Moretown right to minor
flood stage. Several other rivers will likely approach bankfull
as well. Crests should generally occur Monday night into early
Tuesday.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...Clay